House of Cards on the Blockchain Augur that is used to forecast the future should come back to existence due to American politics
U.S. movie and television streaming platform "Netflix", counting on political intrigue Television series "House of Cards", finally reborn within the fierce fighting movie and audio leasing market, and contains become a truth that nobody knows. The giant of the film and television market. American politics seems to have magical powers that may bring back what's on the verge of extinction. Why do you say that? As the midterm elections in america that occurred the day before last night (6) appear to provide a ray of lifestyle to the dying blockchain gaming platform "Augur".
In July this (2018), a project called "Augur" on Ethereum had been officially launched. Like a gaming platform for predicting the near future, gamblers can start and place bets on "Augur", such as for example "Maybe there is a major earthquake in Japan this year", or the formerly really controversial "U.S. Chief executive Trump at the end of the entire year." Will the former be assassinated" etc. The chips utilized to bet should be bought with Ether*1. After the result is launched, the system will use Smart Agreement to disperse the bet to the winning party.
When "Augur" was initially launched, Read More had been a blockbuster, with people discussing the "future" within the roads and alleys. Nevertheless, this video game of wind didn't blow for too much time. Bad user encounter (User Experience) is definitely her fatal injury; coincidentally, she ran into a cold bear market, and folks generally lacked interest in Dapp. Because the saying goes, sitting down and watching him increase from the ground, and then sit watching him fall from the tall building. It is used to describe "Augur". However, with all the arrival of the united states midterm elections*2, a stream of living drinking water poured into "Augur", which made her alive again.
"Which political party*3 will safe a lot of the House of Associates following the 2018 midterm elections in america, and then control the House of Representatives*4" isn't just the consequence of global attention, but also a vigorous occasion within the "Augur" platform. gambling. Prior to the deadline, the total open position of the gambling sport*5 has already reached 6223 ether, that is equivalent to 1.352 million US bucks, or around 41.46 million Taiwan bucks.
Prior to this, probably the most watched wager on "Augur" was predicting whether "Ether will go above US$500 by the finish of 2018 (the price of Ether at the time of writing is approximately All of us$217)." The total outstanding bet is approximately 2,545 ether (US$552,000, NT$16.91 million). The level of the bet is completely smaller sized than the current ��political bet��. This shows that the cryptocurrency community may be more enthusiastic about American politics than the cryptocurrency itself.
Prior to the election result will be unknown, it can be seen from the web site of "Predictions.Global*6" that 66% of gamblers on "Augur" think that the Democratic Party of america (Democratic Celebration) will get yourself a majority inside your home of Representatives Chairs. Quite simply, based on this bet, the Democrats possess a 66% potential for controlling the House of Associates. Coincidentally, "538 (FiveThirtyEight)*7", another popular polling website in the United States, estimates the Democrats have an 88% chance of controlling the House of Representatives. Both pieces of info complemented each other, and the entire platform of "Augur" ushered in the best total open placement in history: 2.1 million US dollars (about 64.36 million Taiwan dollars).
"Augur" must be rehabilitated here. Although "Augur" was in a stagnant condition (hardly any active customers) before this "political bet", the full total open bet of all bets continues to be There's a "slow" rise, at the very least in terms of the number of bets in Ether. If you are using US dollars to calculate the quantity of open positions during this period of time, you will find that the amount shows a downward trend in the past two months. This is because the price tag on Ether provides fluctuated during this time period and dropped a lot. . The Twitter user "defroi" compiled an obvious trend chart for the above phenomenon (Body 1):
Determine 1 From another chart (Figure 2) made by "defroi" for that foreign media "Coindesk", we are able to see that this "political bet" was ready for betting as early as September this season. (Actually, this bet was launched in mid-July this year), also it wasn't before election was getting close to (Oct 22, fourteen days prior to the election) that the stakes rose significantly.
Figure 2 Evaluating the aforementioned two images, the reality becomes clear. The total open positions of all gambling games within the "Augur" platform have been in a position to "fly into the sky" soon, thanks to the united states midterm elections.
However, the daily active users of "Augur" didn't enhance by leaps and bounds due to the midterm elections like wagering money. According to "DappRadar (DappRadar, tentative translation)*8", "Augur" acquired only 19 to 56 every day active users in October, that is incomparable with 256 people betting over the platform a trip to its peak.
Can "Augur" be reborn? Ryan Berckmans, co-founder of "Global Forecast System", believes how the performance of this "political gamble" has added plenty of factors to "Augur". Beckmans explained:
Before, the community on this platform only centered on cryptocurrency-related content, such as gambling games such as "Just how many dollars can a particular currency rise to mid-year and finish of the year?" This type of gambling continues to be very fascinating, but as well restrictive. Gamblers on "Augur" are interested in other subjects (for instance: politics), which ultimately shows that "Augur" nevertheless has a lot of room for advancement.
[Note 1]: Within a gambling game, in case a gambler wants to place a bet on his predicted future, he must make use of Ether to buy chips that can only be utilized in the foreseeable future, and the price tag on the chips depends on the possibility of this future. . The more people bet in the future, in the eyes of all bettors, the higher the probability of occurrence, the higher the price tag on chips, and the low the odds needless to say. Conversely, if you wish to bet on another that no-one thinks may happen, you can purchase chips at a low price, and you may get abundant with the end.
[Notice 2]: During each presidential term of the United States (by the end of 2 yrs in office), the Senate (The Senate), the House of Representatives, and the re-election of the governors of various states will undoubtedly be held, to create the "mid-term election." The results from the reelection often stand for that individuals are dissatisfied with the results of the existing president's administration, similar to the present president's "mid-term examination." (Make sure you refer to [Notice 4] for the reason from the Senate and Home of Associates.)
[Note 3]: American politics is dominated by two major parties, one may be the Republican Party and another may be the Democratic Party.
[Note 4]: The U.S. legislature adopts a bicameral program, namely the Senate and the home of Representatives. Associates of the two houses are directly elected by the people, and each keeps different powers to check on and balance each other. The "mid-term elections" will re-elect one-third of the Senate (100 chairs in total, 34 seats to be re-elected this season), and a complete of 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
[Notice 5]: "Augur" allows gamblers to market their chips anytime, so the cost of potato chips fluctuates (between 0 and 1 Ether), which has become a area for some players to take a position. Under this type of model, to determine the scale of the overall game, we need to consider the issue of liquidation (negotiation). When a gambler gets into and exits on "Augur", the wager he represents should be settled (closed out), in the end, he has remaining the game. After the position is closed, the quantity of bet how the gamblers who remain on the field offers placed is called the "total open position bet". Observing the "complete open roles" can better represent the enthusiasm of this video game.
[Note 6]: "Predictions.Global" is really a website for everybody to browse all "Augur" wagering games.
[Take note 7]: "538 (FiveThirtyEight)" is really a blog that conducts general public opinion surveys and analyses, and reports on politics, economics and sports activities. Public opinion analysis has certain reference value and has a wide audience. It was acquired by ESPN, a US cable company in 2013.
[Notice 8]: "DappRadar (DappRadar)" can verify the introduction and overview of a lot of the current Dapp.
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